Kirkwood Fleet Electrification: A Benefit-Cost Analysis

Prepared: 25-April-2024

In its 2022 Strategic Plan, the City of Kirkwood commits to mitigating climate change through targeted environmental initiatives. This benefit-cost analysis assesses the financial implications of transitioning the city's fleet of passenger and service vehicles to electric models over the next decade.

Executive Summary

Our analysis shows that transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) over a 10-year period would result in a net reduction in costs of $691,000 ($1.592M for EVs vs. $2.283M for ICE vehicles). Under various sensitivity analysis scenarios, savings range from $339,000 to $950,000.

The paper can be found here: Full Fleet Electrification CBA Paper

View the source code: Download Python File or View Code in Browser

For a detailed HTML explanation with tables and charts, see the Interactive Fleet Analysis page.

Net Savings

$691,000

Total cost reduction over 10 years

Carbon Reduction

60%

Reduction in carbon emissions

Fuel Savings

43%

Largest contributor to overall savings

Project Background

The City of Kirkwood proposes transitioning its fleet of passenger and service vehicles to electric models, prioritizing light and medium-sized vehicles. This analysis compares the costs of replacing ICE vehicles with equivalent models against acquiring their best-available American-made EV counterparts over a 10-year study period.

All costs and benefits are measured in 2024 dollars and discounted at the Office of Budget and Management's recommended 2% rate (Circular A-94, 2023).

Impact Categories

Monetary costs included in this analysis:

Non-monetary costs include global carbon impacts. We use a global standing for carbon impacts because of the underlying mission statement for the policy initiative: "Kirkwood will mitigate climate change by making environmentally focused decisions."

Methodology

Our analysis uses a unique vehicle-level simulation method to calculate costs over the 10-year project lifetime. The process includes:

  1. Identifying eligible vehicles based on class, minimum usage, and charging availability
  2. Selecting appropriate EV substitutes for each ICE vehicle
  3. Simulating operation of each vehicle over a 10-year period
  4. Calculating discounted costs of various impact categories
  5. Comparing total costs between ICE and EV scenarios

Vehicle Specifications

ICE Vehicle Replacements by Class

Class Model MPG CO2/mile (lbs) Energy Cost/Mile MSRP 5yr Maintenance Costs
Medium Truck Silverado 2500 14 1.939 $0.266 $48,310 $11,480
Light Truck Ford F-150 18 1.508 $0.155 $44,951 $8,217
Van 2023 Chevy Express 14 1.939 $0.199 $42,899 $8,217
SUV Chevy Tahoe 17 1.597 $0.164 $57,180 $9,455
Minivan Toyota Sienna 36 0.754 $0.078 $38,581 $6,136
Sedan Ford Fusion 30 0.905 $0.093 $31,924 $5,350

EV Vehicle Replacements by Class

Class Model kWH/100Miles CO2/mile (lbs) Energy Cost/Mile MSRP 5yr Maintenance Costs
Medium Truck F-150 Lightning 48 0.581 $0.055 $50,542 $5,510
Light Truck F-150 Lightning 48 0.581 $0.055 $50,542 $5,510
Van Ford E-Transit 50 0.605 $0.058 $46,163 $5,510
SUV Chevrolet Bolt EUV 28 0.339 $0.032 $28,791 $5,510
Minivan Chevrolet Bolt EUV 28 0.339 $0.032 $28,791 $5,510
Sedan Chevrolet Bolt EV 28 0.339 $0.032 $27,404 $5,510

CO2 Emission Analysis

For this analysis, we calculated CO2 emissions resulting from each energy source:

The social cost of carbon was estimated at $100 per ton CO2 for the base analysis.

Simulation Results

Base Case
ICE Favorable
EV Favorable

Base Case Scenario

Standard assumptions: 2% discount rate, $100/ton carbon cost

Cost Category Replace w/ EV Share Replace w/ ICE Share
Used Car Sales $1,488,000 - $1,845,000 -
Carbon Output $100,000 3% $250,000 6%
Maintenance & Repair $375,000 12% $548,000 13%
Fuel $184,000 6% $481,000 12%
Vehicle Purchases $2,362,000 77% $2,849,000 69%
Charger Costs $59,000 2% $0 0%
Total Costs $3,080,000 100% $4,128,000 100%
Net Costs $1,592,000 $2,283,000

Net Savings with EV: $691,000

ICE Favorable Scenario

Assumptions: $10k per charger, 5% discount rate, $50 carbon cost

Cost Category Replace w/ EV Share Replace w/ ICE Share
Used Car Sales $1,292,000 - $1,574,000 -
Carbon Output $50,000 2% $125,000 4%
Maintenance & Repair $326,000 11% $472,000 13%
Fuel $164,000 6% $414,000 12%
Vehicle Purchases $2,094,000 72% $2,518,000 71%
Charger Costs $274,000 9% $0 0%
Total Costs $2,908,000 100% $3,529,000 100%
Net Costs $1,616,000 $1,955,000

Net Savings with EV: $339,000

EV Favorable Scenario

Assumptions: 50% EV terminal value, MO eliminates coal, $200 carbon cost

Cost Category Replace w/ EV Share Replace w/ ICE Share
Used Car Sales $1,539,000 - $1,845,000 -
Carbon Output $139,000 4% $499,000 11%
Maintenance & Repair $375,000 12% $548,000 13%
Fuel $184,000 6% $481,000 11%
Vehicle Purchases $2,362,000 76% $2,849,000 65%
Charger Costs $59,000 2% $0 0%
Total Costs $3,119,000 100% $4,377,000 100%
Net Costs $1,580,000 $2,532,000

Net Savings with EV: $952,000