Kirkwood Fleet Electrification: A Benefit-Cost Analysis
Prepared: 25-April-2024
In its 2022 Strategic Plan, the City of Kirkwood commits to mitigating climate change through targeted environmental initiatives. This benefit-cost analysis assesses the financial implications of transitioning the city's fleet of passenger and service vehicles to electric models over the next decade.
Executive Summary
Our analysis shows that transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) over a 10-year period would result in a net reduction in costs of $691,000 ($1.592M for EVs vs. $2.283M for ICE vehicles). Under various sensitivity analysis scenarios, savings range from $339,000 to $950,000.
The paper can be found here: Full Fleet Electrification CBA Paper
View the source code: Download Python File or View Code in Browser
For a detailed HTML explanation with tables and charts, see the Interactive Fleet Analysis page.
Net Savings
Total cost reduction over 10 years
Carbon Reduction
Reduction in carbon emissions
Fuel Savings
Largest contributor to overall savings
Project Background
The City of Kirkwood proposes transitioning its fleet of passenger and service vehicles to electric models, prioritizing light and medium-sized vehicles. This analysis compares the costs of replacing ICE vehicles with equivalent models against acquiring their best-available American-made EV counterparts over a 10-year study period.
All costs and benefits are measured in 2024 dollars and discounted at the Office of Budget and Management's recommended 2% rate (Circular A-94, 2023).
Impact Categories
Monetary costs included in this analysis:
- Retail price of new vehicles
- Routine maintenance and repair
- Depreciation of vehicles
- Fuel consumption costs
- Charging equipment for electric vehicles
Non-monetary costs include global carbon impacts. We use a global standing for carbon impacts because of the underlying mission statement for the policy initiative: "Kirkwood will mitigate climate change by making environmentally focused decisions."
Methodology
Our analysis uses a unique vehicle-level simulation method to calculate costs over the 10-year project lifetime. The process includes:
- Identifying eligible vehicles based on class, minimum usage, and charging availability
- Selecting appropriate EV substitutes for each ICE vehicle
- Simulating operation of each vehicle over a 10-year period
- Calculating discounted costs of various impact categories
- Comparing total costs between ICE and EV scenarios
Vehicle Specifications
ICE Vehicle Replacements by Class
| Class | Model | MPG | CO2/mile (lbs) | Energy Cost/Mile | MSRP | 5yr Maintenance Costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium Truck | Silverado 2500 | 14 | 1.939 | $0.266 | $48,310 | $11,480 |
| Light Truck | Ford F-150 | 18 | 1.508 | $0.155 | $44,951 | $8,217 |
| Van | 2023 Chevy Express | 14 | 1.939 | $0.199 | $42,899 | $8,217 |
| SUV | Chevy Tahoe | 17 | 1.597 | $0.164 | $57,180 | $9,455 |
| Minivan | Toyota Sienna | 36 | 0.754 | $0.078 | $38,581 | $6,136 |
| Sedan | Ford Fusion | 30 | 0.905 | $0.093 | $31,924 | $5,350 |
EV Vehicle Replacements by Class
| Class | Model | kWH/100Miles | CO2/mile (lbs) | Energy Cost/Mile | MSRP | 5yr Maintenance Costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium Truck | F-150 Lightning | 48 | 0.581 | $0.055 | $50,542 | $5,510 |
| Light Truck | F-150 Lightning | 48 | 0.581 | $0.055 | $50,542 | $5,510 |
| Van | Ford E-Transit | 50 | 0.605 | $0.058 | $46,163 | $5,510 |
| SUV | Chevrolet Bolt EUV | 28 | 0.339 | $0.032 | $28,791 | $5,510 |
| Minivan | Chevrolet Bolt EUV | 28 | 0.339 | $0.032 | $28,791 | $5,510 |
| Sedan | Chevrolet Bolt EV | 28 | 0.339 | $0.032 | $27,404 | $5,510 |
CO2 Emission Analysis
For this analysis, we calculated CO2 emissions resulting from each energy source:
- ICE vehicles: 23.7 lbs. CO2e/gallon (EPA GHG Emission Factors)
- EVs: 1.21 lbs. CO2e/kWh (based on Ameren Missouri's 2023 energy mix)
The social cost of carbon was estimated at $100 per ton CO2 for the base analysis.
Simulation Results
Base Case Scenario
Standard assumptions: 2% discount rate, $100/ton carbon cost
| Cost Category | Replace w/ EV | Share | Replace w/ ICE | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used Car Sales | $1,488,000 | - | $1,845,000 | - |
| Carbon Output | $100,000 | 3% | $250,000 | 6% |
| Maintenance & Repair | $375,000 | 12% | $548,000 | 13% |
| Fuel | $184,000 | 6% | $481,000 | 12% |
| Vehicle Purchases | $2,362,000 | 77% | $2,849,000 | 69% |
| Charger Costs | $59,000 | 2% | $0 | 0% |
| Total Costs | $3,080,000 | 100% | $4,128,000 | 100% |
| Net Costs | $1,592,000 | $2,283,000 |
Net Savings with EV: $691,000
ICE Favorable Scenario
Assumptions: $10k per charger, 5% discount rate, $50 carbon cost
| Cost Category | Replace w/ EV | Share | Replace w/ ICE | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used Car Sales | $1,292,000 | - | $1,574,000 | - |
| Carbon Output | $50,000 | 2% | $125,000 | 4% |
| Maintenance & Repair | $326,000 | 11% | $472,000 | 13% |
| Fuel | $164,000 | 6% | $414,000 | 12% |
| Vehicle Purchases | $2,094,000 | 72% | $2,518,000 | 71% |
| Charger Costs | $274,000 | 9% | $0 | 0% |
| Total Costs | $2,908,000 | 100% | $3,529,000 | 100% |
| Net Costs | $1,616,000 | $1,955,000 |
Net Savings with EV: $339,000
EV Favorable Scenario
Assumptions: 50% EV terminal value, MO eliminates coal, $200 carbon cost
| Cost Category | Replace w/ EV | Share | Replace w/ ICE | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used Car Sales | $1,539,000 | - | $1,845,000 | - |
| Carbon Output | $139,000 | 4% | $499,000 | 11% |
| Maintenance & Repair | $375,000 | 12% | $548,000 | 13% |
| Fuel | $184,000 | 6% | $481,000 | 11% |
| Vehicle Purchases | $2,362,000 | 76% | $2,849,000 | 65% |
| Charger Costs | $59,000 | 2% | $0 | 0% |
| Total Costs | $3,119,000 | 100% | $4,377,000 | 100% |
| Net Costs | $1,580,000 | $2,532,000 |
Net Savings with EV: $952,000